Despite the spotlight of the Republican convention and the unrest in Portland, Ore., and Kenosha, Wis., a big wave of new polls Wednesday showed that President Trump continues to trail Joe Biden by a significant margin both nationwide and in the critical battleground states. On average, Mr. Biden maintains a […] Read more »
The Inside Secrets of TV Research
Research plays a major role in what shows get on the air. But how does it work and what are they looking for? Steve Leblang is a media research expert. From dial testing to focus groups to measuring brain waves, Steve walks us through the various ways data is collected. […] Read more »
A Bounce Won’t Do It. Trump Needs a Post-Convention Vault.
The question on a lot of minds over the next week will be whether President Trump and Joe Biden enjoy the customary 5- or 6-point post-convention bounce. … Every time I walk through the data on this election, it just reinforces my view that while an incumbent in this deep […] Read more »
We Don’t Know Yet Whether Unrest In Kenosha And Portland Will Help Trump
There’s been media speculation over the past week that unrest in places like Kenosha, Wisconsin, and Portland, Oregon, could reshape the presidential race and hurt Democratic nominee Joe Biden. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew discusses why there is not yet evidence to back up these assertions. They also preview Tuesday’s […] Read more »
Trump continues to break the polling
… The fact that the conventional wisdom was wrong in 2016 has clearly had a big effect on people’s perceptions and not necessarily in a good way. A plurality of Americans thought that the Republicans would hold onto the House in 2018, even as polling suggested otherwise. They were blown […] Read more »
It’s Biden’s to lose (and he still could): State of the race after the conventions
The election is Joe Biden’s to lose as he continues to hold a lead over President Donald Trump coming out of the Democratic and Republican conventions, which mark the start of the fall campaign. But the future is unknowable. Data has its limits. Surprises happen. The world can change quickly, […] Read more »