President Donald Trump wanted a large bounce coming out of the Republican National Convention, and early evidence is that he did not receive one. Trump may have gotten a small bump out of his convention, but he still clearly trails former Vice President Joe Biden. If later polling data confirms […] Read more »
Trump is the president of the loud minority, not silent majority
I’ve spent a lot of time talking about the importance of the 50% mark for former Vice President Joe Biden. Biden, unlike Hillary Clinton four years ago, is consistently hitting and exceeding 50% in the polls, which means President Donald Trump can’t just count on late deciders to put him […] Read more »
A slip in support for Black Lives Matter?
… In his speech closing out the convention’s final session Thursday night, Trump warned about “mob rule,” building upon a speech he made last week in which he pitched himself as the “only thing standing between the American Dream and total anarchy, madness and chaos.” Despite all of it occurring […] Read more »
For the GOP, Much More Than the White House and Senate Hangs in the Balance
… There is a good reason for Republicans to be concerned, but not just at the top of the ticket. With virtually all of the political air in the room consumed by the battle for the White House and control of the Senate, there isn’t much left for the 435 […] Read more »
Convention Closeout
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, the DNC and RNC have wrapped their conventions. Will they have any impact on public opinion? We share our analysis. Then, enthusiasm for this year’s presidential election is up. We discuss why. Plus, our friends at the Pew Research Center released new numbers […] Read more »
Four Years Later, It’s Still All About the Base
… Trump is trailing, not because he’s losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it. This week I dug into the most recent national poll from Pew research (7/27-8/2) and compared it with the results of their 2016 validated vote survey (basically, a post-election exit poll […] Read more »