… I was thinking about the the Hans Christian Anderson fable “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” which many have cited in writings and cartoons criticizing President Trump. … I think about the story in the context of this election, but not in a way that compares Trump to the king. Rather, […] Read more »
Watch the key 2016 numbers as you watch the 2020 polls
With the convention season ending and the sprint to November about to begin, it might be useful to look once again at the 2016 presidential exit poll. The survey offers a window into that year’s electorate and will allow us to compare where we are now and where we are […] Read more »
The DNC is over. Here’s how to read the post-convention data.
… The convention bounce itself obviously matters — Trump’s convention is one of his few remaining chances to eat into Biden’s advantage, and Biden could make more Republican Senate seats competitive by widening his lead. But more than a potentially fleeting poll spike, what matters most is the lessons each […] Read more »
Trump’s approval ratings so far are unusually stable – and deeply partisan
More than three and a half years into his administration, President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have remained remarkably stable. There also has been a wider gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ views of Trump than for any other U.S. president in the modern era of polling. CONT. Amina Dunn, Pew Research […] Read more »
Forecasting the US elections — as of Aug. 24
Right now, our model thinks Joe Biden is very likely to beat Donald Trump in the electoral college. CONT. The Economist Read more »
Biden gains popularity in post-convention polling
The first polls taken after the Democratic National Convention are in, and it mostly seems like “mission accomplished” for the Democrats. While it does not look like former Vice President Joe Biden’s lead over President Donald Trump had widened, Biden may have made his advantage more durable by raising his […] Read more »