… Trump enters the Republican National Convention in an unusual position for an incumbent: trailing. It’s not just that he’s trailing, though; he’s trailing by a lot. If Trump is to come back and win this election, he’s going to have to rewrite the record books. There have been only […] Read more »
‘Things look a little better on the margin for Trump’
Nate Silver discusses whether or not Trump’s chances of reelection are increasing. This Week, ABC News Read more »
Is the ‘Convention Bounce’ a Thing of the Past?
A national political convention gives presidential candidates their first major opportunity of the campaign to connect with a national audience, reaching viewers by the millions and kicking off the race’s climactic final leg. Until recently, it also usually meant the candidate would get a bump in the polls — like […] Read more »
Young voters prefer Biden, but they may not vote
There is good news for former Vice President Joe Biden when it comes to younger voters. He’s no longer underperforming where Hillary Clinton ended up in the final 2016 polls. The big question coming out of the Democratic National Convention is whether they’ll actually start to like him. Going in, […] Read more »
A historical look at post-convention bounces
On this week’s episode of Poll Hub, our team takes a historical look at post-convention poll bounces. Recent history hasn’t shown much movement for presidential candidates. Could this year be different? Then, the United States Postal Service and mail-in voting have taken center stage this election season. We discuss the […] Read more »
Beware the Outlier Poll
… As an election nears, many partisans start heading for the nearest window ledge every time they see a poll bearing unwelcome news. Sometimes they have good reason to be concerned, but often the poll is an outlier, one not particularly representative of other polling conducted contemporaneously. There is an […] Read more »