… As an election nears, many partisans start heading for the nearest window ledge every time they see a poll bearing unwelcome news. Sometimes they have good reason to be concerned, but often the poll is an outlier, one not particularly representative of other polling conducted contemporaneously. There is an old saying that if something looks too good to be true, it probably is. In polling, a good rule of thumb is that if the results of a poll look very different from others, it is more likely than not an outlier. CONT.
Charlie Cook
Recent polls: Trump vs. Biden