… Most Republicans don’t just disapprove of the job Biden is doing as president — they strongly disapprove of his job performance. … This lack of crossover support for presidents in their first term in office points toward one of the most animating forces in American politics today: Increased disdain […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2022 Midterm Election with the Generic Ballot
Key Points• National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.• The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each […] Read more »
Measuring the Risks of Panel Conditioning in Survey Research
As public opinion polling increasingly moves toward the use of online panels, one threat that pollsters face is the possibility that their data could be damaged by interviewing the same set of people over and over again. The concern is that repetitive interviewing may introduce panel conditioning, a state in […] Read more »
Why Democrats may defy history and win the 2022 midterms
Democrats have to defy history to hold onto the House in the 2022 midterms. As I’ve noted before, the president’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. History, though, is a guide, not a fortune teller. This week’s special election in New Mexico’s 1st congressional district is part […] Read more »
On Vaccine Mandates, the G.O.P. Isn’t on Its Own Anymore
Businesses are now allowed to require their employees to be vaccinated, so long as they abide by federal regulations for employer mandates, according to guidelines released late last week by the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission. This was not a political announcement. Still, it can’t help but sharpen a line in […] Read more »
Independents Are Boosting Biden
Watching President Biden’s approval (and disapproval) ratings in the polls lately is about as exciting as watching paint dry. In five Gallup polls since taking office, his approval has ranged only 3 points, from 54 percent to 57 percent (Gallup is the only polling organization with data spanning the post-World […] Read more »