Those who follow such matters already know that pollsters under-sampled white, non-college voters in 2016. Then, in 2020, Trump voters exhibited greater than average response bias as they were less likely than others in their demographic to respond to polls. The problems with polling are not only about Trump voters, […] Read more »
Biden makes boring great again
… Welcome to the Biden presidency, where a quiet normalcy has descended on the White House and critics are allowed to toss around the word “boring” without anybody taking offense. … While Trump never broke 50 percent in approval ratings, Biden has remained in the mid-50s throughout his first four […] Read more »
Biden is getting a big bounce with Hispanics
Hispanic voters were one of President Joe Biden’s biggest weaknesses in the 2020 election. Although sources differ on his exact margin, Biden’s advantage with Hispanics was the worst for a Democratic presidential nominee since 2004 — even as he had the strongest performance overall for a Democrat since 2008. A […] Read more »
How Frank Luntz Created a Mess Inside the Los Angeles Times
Well-known Republican pollster Frank Luntz’s work is causing headaches for the Los Angeles Times’ newsroom. Recent revelations that he conducted undisclosed, behind-the-scenes partisan consulting while also doing unpaid work for the paper came as little surprise to staffers, who have previously raised concerns about conflicts-of-interest in his work. CONTINUED Maxwell […] Read more »
How Issue Consensus Turns to Dust
Partisan polarization has been fingered as the cause of any number of problems in contemporary politics from the rise of divided government and ideological extremism to beliefs in conspiracy theories and the spread of misinformation. A less examined aspect of how partisan sectarianism degrades democracy involves the role of party […] Read more »
Who’s Winning the New York Mayor’s Race? Even Pollsters Are Confused.
Much of the focus of the New York City mayoral race has centered on one or two perceived front-runners: Andrew Yang, the 2020 presidential candidate, and Eric Adams, the Brooklyn borough president. But that perception is almost entirely based on what has been an unusually quiet polling season. None of […] Read more »