… Gen Xers, which can be roughly defined as those born between 1965 and 1980, came of age under President Ronald Reagan amid the end of the Cold War. The popular image of Generation X has never quite fit in within any easy political framing. It’s the generation that produced […] Read more »
Redistricting in America, Part Five: The Interior West/Heartland
Key Points• For all of the focus on redistricting, the overall political environment matters for House elections too, and President Biden has shown some signs of weakness in recent weeks.• As we continue our redistricting series, we analyze several small-to-medium-sized states in the Interior West and Heartland.• One of the […] Read more »
Why Republicans can claim to be the party of the White working class
Iowa Democrat Rita Hart decided this week to withdraw her challenge to her defeat in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District last year. Her six-vote loss to Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks capped off a successful year for Iowa Republicans who won the presidential race, Senate race and three of four House races […] Read more »
The Big Question: How Do You Make Polls More Accurate?
Frank Wilkinson: You’ve conducted the famed Iowa Poll, published by the Des Moines Register and rated A+ by FiveThirtyEight, since the 1990s. It’s an Iowa institution. … I actually received an email this week from someone whom I respect a great deal that included the phrase, “polling is broken.” Is […] Read more »
Trump gets his best poll of the cycle. Here’s how to put it in perspective.
… Let’s start with the poll that has every poll junkie buzzing tonight: the vaunted Des Moines Register/Ann Selzer poll of Iowa. If it’s not President Trump’s best poll of the cycle, I’m not sure what is: Mr. Trump led by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent, in a […] Read more »
The Senate: Iowa to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Iowa Senate race from Toss-up to Leans Democratic. Iowa remains a Toss-up for president.• Iowa may have replaced North Carolina as the race likeliest to decide Senate control, although North Carolina remains a very viable Democratic target despite Cal Cunningham’s (D) troubles.• We have […] Read more »