Donald Trump keeps his lead in winner-take-all Florida, at 44 percent over Ted Cruz’s 24 percent and Marco Rubio’s 21 percent. In Ohio, Governor John Kasich is tied with Trump 33 percent to 33 percent, in two of the big winner-take-all delegate prizes up on Tuesday. … On the Democratic […] Read more »
Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio
Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential field in the March 15 primary states of Florida and Illinois, while John Kasich holds the edge in his home state of Ohio, according to three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. On the Democratic side, meanwhile, Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders in all […] Read more »
Trump Has a Major Image Problem With Hispanics
Presidential candidate Donald Trump has a major image problem among U.S. Hispanics, with 77% saying they view him unfavorably and just 12% viewing him favorably. This gives Trump by far the most negative image among Hispanics of any of the four Republican candidates. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
Tuesday Primaries Changed Everything and Nothing at All
The results of Tuesday’s primary contests brought us some surprises – a Bernie win, a Rubio collapse and a Trump romp. But, it didn’t fundamentally alter the trajectory of this campaign. Hillary Clinton, barring some sort of epic collapse over the next few weeks, is going to be the Democratic […] Read more »
A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries
A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »
Challenges for Trump vs. Clinton: Favorability, Attributes and More
A rougher road to his party’s nomination isn’t Donald Trump’s only challenge: He faces trouble in a hypothetical general election contest as well, trailing Hillary Clinton in personal ratings, facing 2-1 opposition on his signature policy issues and falling short in vote preference and expectations alike. CONT. Gary Langer, ABC […] Read more »