Last night, Bernie Sanders pulled off a stunning upset in Michigan that almost no one expected — after all, he had been trailing by more than 20 points in much of the polling mere days before. Why were the polls so wrong? CONT. Jeff Stein, Vox Read more »
Bernie Sanders’s Win in Michigan Changes Race but Not Probabilities
… Bernie Sanders managed to defeat Hillary Clinton by two percentage points in Michigan on Tuesday night, even though he trailed by at least 11 percentage points in every survey, and even though the demographics pointed toward a significant, if relatively smaller, advantage for Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Sanders’s win is […] Read more »
Why The Polls Missed Bernie Sanders’s Michigan Upset
If Bernie Sanders were to defeat Hillary Clinton in Michigan’s Democratic primary, it would be “among the greatest polling errors in primary history,” our editor in chief, Nate Silver, wrote Tuesday evening when results started to come in. Sanders pulled it off, and now we’re left wondering how it happened. […] Read more »
How Trump, Rubio and Cruz Would Fare Against Clinton in November
Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders would handily defeat Donald Trump in a general election match-up, while a clash between Clinton and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio would be a toss-up, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. CONT. Carrie Dann, NBC News Read more »
Trump’s Calling Cards Win the Day, While for Clinton … It’s Complicated
Donald Trump’s now-familiar calling cards won the day for him in Michigan and Mississippi, but with some results that marked his continued challenges trying to morph from a plurality candidate into one who can command a majority in his party. Hillary Clinton, for her part, swept through Mississippi but stumbled […] Read more »
5 numbers that explain Tuesday’s election results
… Going in to Tuesday, public surveys showed Clinton with a prohibitive lead over Sanders in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary. … Polls appear to have underestimated the number of Republicans and independents who crossed over to back Sanders. According to exit polls, only 69 percent of Democratic primary voters identified […] Read more »