… We at NPR Politics wanted a data-driven, quantitative way to answer the fundamental question of whether Trump can win, or if this is Hillary Clinton’s race to lose — and give readers the power to test it out themselves. There’s perhaps no better way to do that than through […] Read more »
9-State Battleground Poll: Trump’s Rustbelt play faltering
Donald Trump’s unpopularity, beliefs, values and leadership qualities are forging a new 2016 battleground for the election of the President and U.S. Senate. Trump and Clinton no longer face symmetric image problems. With 60 percent viewing Trump unfavorably and half of presidential year voters saying they will never vote for […] Read more »
Obama’s Rise Isn’t Lifting All Boats
While both parties decry of the state of the economy and terrorism shows no signs of abating, President Obama’s job approval rating in every major poll out this month – NBC/Wall Street Journal, ABC/Washington Post, CNN and Bloomberg – is between 51 and 53 percent. The easiest explanation for his […] Read more »
The Political Science Election Forecasts of the 2016 Presidential and Congressional Elections
Normally around this time in a presidential election cycle — the “interregnum,” as it has come to be known — we would be waiting for the dust from the nomination campaigns to settle before moving on to the conventions and to considerations of the general election race. As you may […] Read more »
Donald Trump, Partisan Polarization, and the 2016 Presidential Election
Recent presidential elections in the United States have been characterized by sharp divisions between Democrats and Republicans on a wide range of issues along with high levels of party loyalty and straight-ticket voting. Voting patterns in these elections have been very stable — the same voter groups and the same […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Clinton up by 6 points, 89% say ‘hot-headed’ describes Trump
Donald Trump has had a few rocky weeks on the campaign trail, and it shows in the latest Fox News Poll. Just over half of Republicans would rather have someone besides Trump as their nominee, and his support in the presidential ballot test has dropped seven points since May. CONT. […] Read more »