As he nears the end of his presidency, Barack Obama continues to enjoy a broad degree of international popularity. A new Pew Research Center survey conducted in 10 European nations, four major Asia-Pacific countries, Canada and the United States finds that half or more of those polled in 15 of […] Read more »
Donald Trump Has A 20 Percent Chance Of Becoming President
How do you predict a general election with Donald Trump? … In fact, despite (or perhaps because of) the unusual nature of his candidacy, the conventional wisdom holds that Trump is a fairly substantial underdog. … But should this seeming consensus give us more confidence — or make us nervous […] Read more »
The 2016 election is already decided. History says Hillary Clinton wins.
… With the exception of 2000, the result of every presidential election since, and including, 1980 has been determined before the general election even officially began. In fact, most of these elections were effectively decided by this point in the cycle. There is no reason to think that this year, […] Read more »
Why Do So Many People Dislike Hillary?
Hillary Clinton is the odds-on favourite to be the next president of the USA. But polls show more and more Americans view her unfavourably. In fact, the public’s hostility towards her is record-breaking. Only Donald Trump elicits greater antipathy. That’s perhaps less surprising. He is a political outsider, and a […] Read more »
Are the polls skewed against Trump?
Is there a pool of voters who are too embarrassed to admit to pollsters they’re voting for Donald Trump? As Trump falls consistently behind Hillary Clinton in general-election polls, his campaign is counting on it. According to one theory — referred to as the “shy Trump voter” — there’s a […] Read more »
Hillary is no Brexit
I’m not quite sure how it happened — but it was fast. Somehow, in an instant, Brexit became Donald Trump and vice versa. Brexit’s victory, breathless commentators conjectured, made the presumptive GOP presidential nominee’s own win in the U.S. more likely, or at least possible. What’s the connection? CONT. Mark […] Read more »