Recent presidential elections in the United States have been characterized by sharp divisions between Democrats and Republicans on a wide range of issues along with high levels of party loyalty and straight-ticket voting. Voting patterns in these elections have been very stable — the same voter groups and the same geographic areas have consistently supported either the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate. …
But none of these elections involved a major party nominee like Donald Trump — an insult-hurling businessman who has never run for elected office, has no longstanding ties to the Republican Party, and who has regularly attacked the party’s established leadership including its most recent president and its two most recent presidential nominees. CONT.
Alan I. Abramowitz (Emory), Sabato’s Crystal Ball