Americans’ views of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are almost exactly the same now as they were in early July before their party’s convention. Both of their favorable ratings improved after their party’s convention, but those higher ratings did not persist. CONT. Frank Newport, Gallup Read more »
With Bernie Sanders Out, Young Adults See Third-Party Appeal
With Bernie Sanders out of the presidential race, Hillary Clinton has moved to consolidate her support in his broad base of young voters. But much of that backing is grudging, with turnout an open question and support for third-party candidates posing a potential risk to Clinton. CONT. Sofi Sinozich, ABC […] Read more »
Forecasting the 2016 Presidential Election: Will Time for Change Mean Time for Trump?
The Time for Change forecasting model has correctly predicted the winner of the national popular vote in every presidential election since 1988. This model is based on three predictors — the incumbent president’s approval rating at midyear (late June or early July) in the Gallup Poll, the growth rate of […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Red-State Problem
… The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among white voters without a degree so that he can make up the margin of Mr. Romney’s four-point defeat and […] Read more »
Walmart Moms Focus Group Video
As part of our continuing series of focus groups among Walmart Moms, Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Margie Omero of Penn Schoen Berland conducted two focus groups on Tuesday, August 9, 2016. We have tracked these Walmart Moms – defined as voters with children under 18 in their […] Read more »
Trump’s Challenge? It’s Not Just Temperament
Questions about Donald Trump’s temperament have dominated recent criticisms of his candidacy for president. But two other concerns may be doing the most damage: Doubts about his qualifications for office and his honesty and trustworthiness. CONT. Chad Kiewiet de Jonge, ABC News Read more »