Hillary Clinton has retained most of the bounce she received after the Democratic National Convention and now enjoys a 6-point lead over Donald Trump in a two-way contest among likely voters. CONT. John McCormick, Bloomberg Read more »
Why the USC/L.A. Times tracking poll differs from other surveys
Since July 28, when Hillary Clinton accepted the Democratic nomination, she has gained five points in the USC Dornsife/LA Times Daybreak tracking poll of the election. … Typically, polls ask people which candidate they favor or lean toward. Those who say they don’t know or are undecided don’t get factored […] Read more »
What Difference At This Point Did It Make?
Following the back-to-back Republican and Democratic Conventions, Hillary Clinton may be asking herself “What Difference At This Point Did It Make?” And, while the spate of recent post-convention head-to-head polling has been fairly positive for the Former Secretary of State, a look across several other measures from the latest NBC/WSJ […] Read more »
Polls Show Pennsylvania Back In Clinton’s Firewall
At FiveThirtyEight, we generally prefer state polls to national polls. So far, though, we haven’t had much of them to work with. If you’re getting dozens of national polls every week, but just a smattering of state-level surveys — and that’s what we’ve been getting — you’re better off inferring […] Read more »
Clinton’s Lead Over Trump Increases in Three Battleground States
Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump in three key battleground states after the conclusion of the political conventions, including in all-important Ohio, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls. CONT. Mark Murray, NBC News Read more »
Donald Trump needs a miracle to win
… Journalistic neutrality allegedly forces us to say that the race isn’t over until November, and most media organizations prefer to hype the presidential contest to generate viewers and readers rather than explain why a photo finish is unlikely. But a dispassionate examination of the data, combined with a coldblooded […] Read more »