We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it […] Read more »
The GOP Security Experts Vs. The GOP Nominee
The scathing letter released Monday by 50 former top GOP national-security officials declaring that Donald Trump “lacks the character, values and experience to be President” was a missile aimed directly at the embattled Republican nominee’s greatest weakness: the doubts about his qualifications for the nation’s biggest job, particularly among white-collar […] Read more »
About A Third Of Bernie Sanders’s Supporters Still Aren’t Backing Hillary Clinton
One of the big questions heading into the Democratic National Convention late last month was whether Hillary Clinton could rally Bernie Sanders supporters to her side. Before the convention, many Sanders supporters said they would support Clinton in a two-way matchup against Donald Trump, but when pollsters offered them third-party […] Read more »
A Favorable Poll for Donald Trump Has a Potential Problem
There’s an interesting new entry in political polling: the U.S.C. Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll. It’s different from other surveys because it’s a panel, which means it recontacts the same voters over and over. … But so far, the U.S.C./LAT panel has consistently been far out of step with other […] Read more »
Democrats are much more excited about Hillary Clinton than Republicans are about Donald Trump
… A new Washington Post-ABC News poll is the latest to show Clinton surging to a big lead in the presidential race. And a large reason for that is that Democrats have quickly rallied to her cause. … Clinton’s rise among Democrats is also in stark contrast to Republican enthusiasm […] Read more »
Unskewing the unskewers: A look at the new theories for why Trump is actually winning
Here on Planet Earth, the best understanding of the state of the presidential race is that Hillary Clinton has a solid-but-not-insurmountable lead. Recent polls — statistically measured surveys of thousands of American voters — have shown Clinton up by anywhere from 1 to 15 points over the course of the […] Read more »