… The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among white voters. He hopes to do much better than Mitt Romney did in 2012 among white voters without a degree so that he can make up the margin of Mr. Romney’s four-point defeat and overcome the additional losses he’s likely to absorb among well-educated voters and Hispanic voters. Even when Mr. Trump has led in the polls, he has fared worse than Mr. Romney among those two groups.
On paper, that’s easy enough in a state like Iowa or Ohio, where white working-class voters are plentiful and President Obama won a lot of them. They might now be willing to reject Hillary Clinton.
But that doesn’t work so well if there aren’t many white working-class Democrats for Mr. Trump to win over, or if there are a lot of well-educated voters for him to lose.
That’s more or less the situation in Georgia, and across many red states. CONT.
Nate Cohn, New York Times