… The number of white voters Mr. Trump attracts keeps shrinking as a share of the electorate, while the number of nonwhite voters he repels keeps growing, a pattern that helped President Obama retain the White House. Yet few political trends continue in a straight line. Some Democrats have begun […] Read more »
The Geography of Trumpism
… To see what conditions prime a place to support Mr. Trump for the presidency, we compared hundreds of demographic and economic variables from census data, along with results from past elections, with this year’s results in the 23 states that have held primaries and caucuses. We examined what factors […] Read more »
A Simple Model for Predicting Hillary Clinton’s Vote in the March 15 Democratic Primaries
A simple model based on two predictors — the racial composition of the Democratic primary electorate and a dummy variable for region — explain over 90% of the variance in Hillary Clinton’s vote share in this year’s Democratic primaries through March 8. The results of a regression analysis of Clinton’s […] Read more »
Why Donald Trump Has Done Worse in Mostly White States
Donald Trump has tended to fare worst in states that are mostly white. That doesn’t mean he hasn’t had great success in appealing to white Republican primary voters — there’s no doubt of that — only that he generally does better in states that have higher percentages of nonwhites, particularly […] Read more »
Democratic Candidates Face Different Kinds of Diversity in Nevada and South Carolina
After its start in two overwhelmingly white states, Iowa and New Hampshire, the presidential nominating contests move on to much more diverse territory in South Carolina and Nevada. The change is particularly important to Democrats Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. The racial and ethnic compositions of Democratic electorates changes from […] Read more »
Similarities, differences in Iowa, NH
The first two nominating events of this election cycle, Iowa and New Hampshire, produced different winners in both parties. Why? It wasn’t an intervening event or an issue that played importantly in one locale but not the other. Some claim the differences derive from the varying demographics of the two […] Read more »