As politicians, Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders could hardly be more different. … Despite their differences, however, Cruz and Sanders have one thing in common — their electoral strategies rely heavily on dramatically expanding the American electorate. … And Sanders and Cruz aren’t the only presidential candidates banking on increased voter […] Read more »
These six new voting blocs won’t want Hillary Clinton in the White House
Democrats have approached the 2016 presidential election with great confidence, arguing that changing demographics will guarantee them victory. By this, they mean the growing number of African Americans, Hispanics and Asian Americans expected to vote in November. However, other dramatic changes in the electorate over the past 30 years give […] Read more »
These two maps are incredibly revealing about who’s voting for Trump, and why
In a detailed analysis of the geography of Donald Trump’s vote, Neil Irwin and Josh Katz of the New York Times recently wrote that geographic pockets of unhyphenated Americans — whites who define their ancestry to be “American” rather than a specific European heritage — “turn out to be the […] Read more »
Donald Trump’s Struggle in Wisconsin Is About Demographics, Not Momentum
… We’ve frequently published articles using models to predict the results of contests based on demographics, and both models — one after the Super Tuesday primaries and one after the March 15 primaries — projected Wisconsin to be one of Mr. Trump’s worst remaining states. … Why is Wisconsin such […] Read more »
American Anger: It’s Not the Economy. It’s the Other Party.
… Data on the nation’s economic recovery, people’s reactions to current economic conditions and their overall sense of satisfaction with life doesn’t suggest Americans are angry. In fact, historical measures indicate people are about as happy and satisfied with the economy and with their lives as they were in 1983 […] Read more »
Bernie Sanders Faces Tougher Terrain After a Big Week
… To get to a majority, not counting superdelegates, Mr. Sanders now needs more than 56 percent of the remaining pledged delegates. It might not look too daunting after he just won at least 70 percent of the vote in five states. But the remaining states aren’t especially welcoming for […] Read more »