The fact that Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, is favored to win re-election is a clear warning to those worried about declining support for democratic institutions and values in the United States. The prospect of DeSantis’s re-election in November suggests that under certain circumstances the American electorate will tolerate, […] Read more »
The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?
Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than […] Read more »
Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at […] Read more »
From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing
It was a referendum. Now it’s a choice. For political professionals in both parties, that’s the capsule explanation for why the Democratic position in the midterm elections appears to have improved so much since summer began. When the election looked to be primarily a referendum on the performance of the […] Read more »
Democratic enthusiasm surges at polls after SCOTUS abortion ruling
Abortion bans in GOP-controlled states have sparked a surge of Democratic enthusiasm at the polls, says Chuck Todd. Since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have topped President Joe Biden’s 2020 performance in four special elections. Meet the Press, NBC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll […] Read more »
Once unthinkable, Democrats now see narrow path to keeping the House
Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump. After months of […] Read more »