It’s long been said that midterm elections are all about the current occupant of the White House — a referendum on the incumbent and his party. But do the old rules and assumptions apply as they once did? Because of Donald Trump, they may not this year. … Trump has […] Read more »
Flip the Script
Earlier this cycle, a seasoned Democratic strategist argued that his party’s success in the midterms wouldn’t be predicated on policy successes but by turning out the 2018/2020 coalition of anti-Trump voters. This strategy, however, of trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on the party in charge to the […] Read more »
Biden’s Approval Ratings: How Much Do they Matter?
… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged […] Read more »
Roe fell two months ago. Here’s how much it’s hurting the GOP.
Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure. The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly […] Read more »
2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States
Key Points• Over the past several midterms, the number of states splitting their ticket between Senate and gubernatorial races has gone down.• Still, using more recent history as a guide, it seems likely that at least a few states will cross over.• The states that split their ticket in midterms […] Read more »
Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?
I like to put together a little economic forecast model around this point in an election cycle. Not so much because I’m trying to predict what’ll happen — there are more sophisticated ways to do that — but because I want to get a sense of a baseline. That is, […] Read more »