Democrats Buoyed by Abortion and Trump, Times/Siena Poll Finds

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Even as they struggle to persuade voters that they should be trusted on the economy, Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress as the sprint to November’s midterm election begins, a New York Times/Siena College poll has found.

The surprising Democratic strength has been bolstered by falling gas prices and President Biden’s success at breaking through legislative gridlock in Washington to pass his agenda. That shift in political momentum has helped boost, in just two months, the president’s approval rating by nine percentage points and doubled the share of Americans who believe the country is on the right track.

But Democrats are also benefiting from factors over which they had little control: the public outcry in response to the Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights and the return of former President Donald J. Trump to an attention-commanding presence on the national stage. CONTINUED

Lisa Lerer & Nate Cohn, New York Times

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Political Campaigns Flood Streaming Video With Custom Voter Ads

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… Although millions of American voters may not be aware of it, the powerful data-mining techniques that campaigns routinely use to tailor political ads to consumers on sites and apps are making the leap to streaming video. The targeting has become so precise that next door neighbors streaming the same true crime show on the same streaming service may now be shown different political ads — based on data about their voting record, party affiliation, age, gender, race or ethnicity, estimated home value, shopping habits or views on gun control. …

Targeted political ads on streaming platforms — video services delivered via internet-connected devices like TVs and tablets — seemed like a niche phenomenon during the 2020 presidential election. Two years later, streaming has become the most highly viewed TV medium in the United States, according to Nielsen. Savvy candidates and advocacy groups are flooding streaming services with ads in an effort to reach cord-cutters and “cord nevers,” people who have never watched traditional cable or broadcast TV. CONTINUED

Natasha Singer, New York Times

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High Floors + Low Ceilings = Tight Races

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Don’t be surprised between now and the midterm elections to see most independent political prognosticators being unusually cautious in their pronouncements (those in the partisan cheerleading roles will exhibit their predictable responses). After all, the trajectory of this campaign has already departed that of any midterm election in modern times. A key component in election analysis is studying past elections, in this case midterm elections under somewhat similar circumstances. But this year is akin to driving cross country with no map or GPS.

With the country at large and many states so evenly divided and with hyper-partisanship so pervasive, the political environment has created high floors and low ceilings for candidates in key races, keeping trailing candidates within striking distance of those in the lead. It takes an unusual circumstance for one candidate to win comfortably in many of these contests, much harder than it was just a decade or two ago. CONTINUED

Charlie Cook

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Fox News Poll: 65% say Trump was wrong to take documents

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Over a month after the FBI search of former President Donald Trump’s Florida home, majorities of voters think it was inappropriate for Trump to have removed sensitive documents from the White House and that the FBI acted appropriately.

The FBI executed a search warrant at Mar-a-Lago on August 8 as part of an investigation into the handling of sensitive documents taken from the White House.

By a 39-point margin, more voters believe it was inappropriate (65%) than appropriate (26%) for Trump to remove those documents at the end of his presidency.

As for the FBI, by a 17-point margin voters think it acted aptly (56% appropriate vs. 39% inappropriate). CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Why This Election Is So Weird

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The two major factors shaping the 2022 midterm elections collided in tumultuous fashion on Tuesday morning.

First came the government report that inflation last month had increased faster than economists had expected or President Joe Biden had hoped. The announcement triggered a sharp fall in the stock market, the worst day on Wall Street in two years. That same afternoon, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina introduced legislation that would impose a nationwide ban on abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy.

The inflation report captured this year’s most powerful tailwind for Republicans: widespread dissatisfaction with Biden’s management of the economy. Graham’s announcement captured this year’s strongest Democratic tailwind: widespread unease about abortion rights.

The shift in the campaign debate away from Biden’s management of the economy and toward the GOP’s priorities on abortion and other issues has been the principal factor improving Democratic prospects since earlier this summer. But the unexpectedly pessimistic inflation report—which showed soaring grocery and housing bills overshadowing a steady decline in gasoline prices—was a pointed reminder that the economy remains a formidable threat to Democrats in November. CONTINUED

Ronald Brownstein, The Atlantic

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Will abortion affect the midterm vote for candidates? Lessons from the ban gay marriage ballot initiatives

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The recent electoral optimism among Democrats has many causes: gas prices are down, Biden’s legislative victories are up, and Republicans are nominating candidates from New Hampshire to Arizona who appear to be out of step with the voters. But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a woman’s right to an abortion may be, by far and away, the most powerful development yet this year. As the results of a ballot initiative in Kansas—a state Donald Trump won by nearly 15 points—showed, when the issue is on the ballot by itself it wins big.

The question is—will support for abortion rights also result in support for Democratic, pro-choice candidates?

Three interesting developments are changing the expectations for November. CONTINUED

Elaine Kamarck & Celia Shapiro, Brookings Institution

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