Will abortion affect the midterm vote for candidates? Lessons from the ban gay marriage ballot initiatives

The recent electoral optimism among Democrats has many causes: gas prices are down, Biden’s legislative victories are up, and Republicans are nominating candidates from New Hampshire to Arizona who appear to be out of step with the voters. But the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn a woman’s right to an abortion may be, by far and away, the most powerful development yet this year. As the results of a ballot initiative in Kansas—a state Donald Trump won by nearly 15 points—showed, when the issue is on the ballot by itself it wins big.

The question is—will support for abortion rights also result in support for Democratic, pro-choice candidates?

Three interesting developments are changing the expectations for November. CONTINUED

Elaine Kamarck & Celia Shapiro, Brookings Institution


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