Despite some signals of optimism, the public remains largely dissatisfied with the economy and the direction of the country

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Two months ahead of the midterm elections, President Biden’s approval ratings and perceptions of the economy have improved, although both are still largely negative.

On the heels of several policy successes for the president, 45% of Americans approve of his job performance, up from his lowest rating of 36% in July. While only 38% approve of how Biden is handling the economy, that is also up from its low point in June, when 28% approved.

The improvement in Biden’s ratings is largely driven by renewed support among Democrats. Seventy-eight percent of Democrats approve of Biden’s job performance, up from 65% in July and 72% in June. CONTINUED

AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

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Biden approval rises sharply ahead of midterms

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President Joe Biden’s popularity improved substantially from his lowest point this summer, but concerns about his handling of the economy persist, according to a poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.

Support for Biden recovered from a low of 36% in July to 45%, driven in large part by a rebound in support from Democrats just two months before the November midterm elections. During a few bleak summer months when gasoline prices peaked and lawmakers appeared deadlocked, the Democrats faced the possibility of blowout losses against Republicans. CONTINUED

Josh Boak & Hannah Fingerhut, Associated Press

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Changing fundamentals boost Democrats

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Democrats’ electoral prospects improved in recent months as a function of several developments, including the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization abortion decision and Democratic legislative successes.

Some have taken the improvement as a sign that “fundamentals” no longer count.

A careful sifting of the evidence suggests, on the contrary, that Democrats’ fortunes improved in part because the fundamentals have shifted in our direction. The movement isn’t huge, and we can’t be certain it will continue, but the rules of politics are being reinforced, not rewritten. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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Why Aren’t You Voting in Your Financial Self-Interest?

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Why do millions of Americans on both the right and the left ignore their own economic self-interest when they choose which political party to support?

Partisan prioritization of cultural and racial issues has, to a notable extent, superseded the economic conflicts that once characterized the nation’s politics, leading to what scholars call a “dematerialization” of American electoral competition.

On the right, millions of working- and middle-class whites have shifted their focus away from the goal of income redistribution — an objective Democrats have customarily promoted — to support the Republican preference for traditional, even reactionary, sociocultural values. At the same time, college-educated white voters have come to support tax and spending initiatives that subordinate their own financial self-interest in favor of redistribution and liberal social values. CONTINUED

Thomas B. Edsall, New York Times

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Southern Focus Survey

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Three-fourths of residents in 11 Southern states (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia) believe a woman should be able to obtain a legal abortion if the pregnancy threatens the woman’s life or health, according to the latest Southern Focus Survey, an initiative of the Winthrop Poll. …

Meanwhile, approval ratings for President Joe Biden in the South remain low at 35%. Support typically falls along party lines with Republicans being very critical and Democrats much more supportive.

As for Trump, a little less than half of Southern respondents gave him a favorable rating, while almost an equal amount gave him an unfavorable rating. The former president remains popular with those who self-identify as Republicans, 84% of whom view him favorably. CONTINUED

Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research, Winthrop University

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Abortion Rights Are Number One for Californians this November

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The September PPIC Statewide Survey finds most California likely voters looking favorably upon deciding abortion policy through a ballot initiative—and November’s Proposition 1 has strong support in the early going. And since the Prop 1 outcome is currently more important to those on the yes side, abortion rights supporters are a group to watch in the midterms. …

A majority yes vote on Prop 1 would prohibit the state from denying or interfering with an individual’s reproductive freedom, including the right to choose an abortion and contraceptives. …

After hearing the ballot title and label for Prop 1, 69% of likely voters say that they would vote yes (25% no) on this legislative constitutional amendment. Overwhelming majorities of Democrats (86%), 67% of independents, and 33% of Republicans would vote yes on this measure. CONTINUED

Mark Baldassare, Public Policy Institute of California

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