Polls show Republicans may not get red wave they hoped for in midterms

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Historical trends and months of polling previously predicted that Democrats will face trouble in the midterms. But recent data shows that a red wave may not be the tsunami that Republicans were hoping for. Democratic strategist Joel Benenson and Republican pollster Neil Newhouse join Amna Nawaz to discuss what they’re watching ahead of Election Day.

PBS NewsHour

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Massachusetts: Healey Opens General Election With Big Lead Over Diehl

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Democrat Maura Healey starts off the general election for governor of Massachusetts with a major advantage over Republican Geoff Diehl, according to a new poll.

The Suffolk University/Boston Globe/NBC10 Boston/Telemundo poll — which includes all the candidates who qualified for the November ballot — shows Healey with a 26-point lead over Diehl.

Healey has 52% and Diehl 26% in the poll, conducted with 500 likely voters Sept. 10-13, after the Massachusetts primary elections. CONTINUED

Alison King, NBC10 Boston

Fox News Poll: Majority says Biden administration incompetent

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Voters rated the Biden administration as competent and effective last year. Not anymore, as a majority sees no improvement in getting inflation under control — and a growing number say rising prices have damaged their family finances.

Fully 78% of voters in a new Fox News national survey say inflation has caused them financial hardship, up 3 points since July and up 11 since December. Some 34% describe it as “a serious hardship,” up from earlier this summer (30% in July). CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Inflation, abortion motivating voter turnout

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If the 2022 midterm election is about inflation and crime, that helps the GOP. If it’s about the future of American democracy and abortion, that helps the Democrats.

The latest Fox News national survey shows those are the four top issues that registered voters are “extremely” concerned about right now: inflation (59% extremely concerned), future of American democracy (50%), abortion (45%), and crime (43%). …

Overall, if the Congressional election were today, 44% would back the Democratic candidate and 41% the Republican. The Democrats’ 3-point edge is within the survey’s margin of sampling error – and Fox News modeling suggests it translates into a GOP gain of about one House seat. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton, Fox News

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Texas: Gov. Abbott maintains lead

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The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds Gov. Greg Abbott sustaining a polling lead over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke, 45%-40%, albeit one that has narrowed as the gubernatorial campaign enters its final and most public phase. …

Beyond the top lines of the gubernatorial trial ballot, the poll results illuminate an election environment in which the Abbott/O’Rourke match-up is the most competitive race for the office Texas has seen in decades. Yet the results also reveal the political and structural advantages Abbott still holds, and the significant obstacles O’Rourke still faces in putting together a coalition of voters capable of overcoming those advantages. …

Above all, the results illustrate how Gov. Abbott’s sustained effort to keep Republican voters focused on border security over the past several months is channeling the most powerful political sentiments in the Texas GOP: Republican voters’ continuing focus on immigration and border security as political issues, fueled by an intense aversion to immigration and perceptions of its negative effects on the state. CONTINUED

Jim Henson & Joshua Blank, Texas Politics Project

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Independents will make or break Biden and the Democrats in November

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… Anyone who studies election results in depth understands a couple of key points. First, the base will turn out. It always does in both parties. Second, elections are won in the middle. Yet most political strategies, ad buys and messaging center on base issues with a heavy dose of “fear and loathing” designed to energize the people most likely to turn out anyway. Biden’s recent “Red Speech” is a perfect example.

Yet consultants and the media who focus on which party’s base voters are the most motivated continually miss the larger point. Neither party’s base is big enough to win an election, because winning is not all about the base. It’s about the political center of the country — those people who are not affiliated with either party, namely independents.

For those who resist this reality, even a cursory look at recent elections proves the point. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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