Biden’s Latest 42% Job Approval Similar to Prior Presidents’

· Leave a Comment

President Joe Biden’s latest job approval rating of 42% is essentially unchanged from last month’s 44% and maintains the slight improvement he’s seen from his 38% personal low point in July. Still, the majority of Americans, 56%, disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job. …

Biden’s current approval rating is roughly in line with the ratings of most of his modern predecessors at the same point in their first terms as president. The timing is significant because it is two months before the midterm congressional elections, which are widely seen as a referendum on the sitting president. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

DeSantis’ migrant flights point toward an ominous future of red and blue conflict

· Leave a Comment

The spreading push from Republican governors to relocate undocumented immigrants into blue enclaves marks a new escalation of the red state drive to seize control of national policy from below, not only on immigration but on a broad array of domestic policies. …

Taken together, all of these pieces – the torrent of socially conservative red state legislation; the flurry of lawsuits to constrain Biden’s ability to exert national power or to erase previously guaranteed national rights (like abortion); and the use of Republican filibusters to prevent Democrats from passing legislation restoring a national floor of rights amount to what I’ve called “an effort to define a nation within a nation – one operating with a set of rules and policies that diverge from the rest of America more than in almost any previous era.”

The moves by Republican governors to remove migrants in large numbers from red states to blue jurisdictions takes the idea of red and blue America as separate nations to a new, ominously literal extreme. CONTINUED

Ron Brownstein, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Midterms 2022: April seems like ancient history

· Leave a Comment

Less than six months ago — April, to be specific — Democrats were wringing their hands about the party’s prospects in November and Republicans were counting their chickens before their midterm eggs had hatched. …

Long-term historical trends, combined with Biden’s standing in national polls, the enthusiasm gap and the public’s fear of inflation, did add up to a worst-case scenario for Democrats.

But circumstances changed, as have the parties’ prospects.

Republicans could still win control of Congress in November, but Democratic Senate seats in Arizona and New Hampshire look less vulnerable now than they did a few months ago, and the nomination of damaged GOP nominees in both House and Senate contests could produce a midterm outcome that looks very different from previous midterm results. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Democratic midterm message outperforms GOP’s message, NBC News poll finds

· Leave a Comment

Beyond congressional preference, President Biden’s job rating and how the two parties fare on key issues, the new NBC News poll also tested the main Democratic vs. Republican midterm messages.

And the poll found more voters preferring the Democratic message over the GOP message — without using either Biden’s name, Donald Trump’s or mentioning either party — according to NBC’s bipartisan team of pollsters who conducted the survey. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Modest Declines in Positive Views of ‘Socialism’ and ‘Capitalism’ in U.S.

· Leave a Comment

The American public continues to express more positive opinions of “capitalism” than “socialism,” although the shares viewing each of the terms positively have declined modestly since 2019.

Today, 36% of U.S. adults say they view socialism somewhat (30%) or very (6%) positively, down from 42% who viewed the term positively in May 2019. Six-in-ten today say they view socialism negatively, including one-third who view it very negatively.

And while a majority of the public (57%) continues to view capitalism favorably, that is 8 percentage points lower than in 2019 (65%), according to a national survey from Pew Research Center conducted Aug. 1-14 among 7,647 adults. CONTINUED

Pew Research Center

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

This little-known election predictor should worry Democrats

· Leave a Comment

As early voting begins around the country, every political data point would appear to marginally favor the Democrats. Polls suggest they lead ever so slightly in key Senate races and in national House polls. Their candidates are raking in cash, while Republicans struggle financially. And in special elections following the end of Roe v. Wade, Democratic turnout soared.

But one key indicator — primary turnout — looks better for the GOP.

According to pollster John Couvillon, 52 percent of 2022 primary voters cast ballots in GOP races, while 48 percent voted in Democratic races. That’s a good sign for Republicans. High primary turnout signals enthusiasm for the general election — and the party with the stronger primary turnout typically does better in the midterms. CONTINUED

David Byler, Washington Post

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack