Approval of U.S. Supreme Court’s work continues to be lower than in 2020

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A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 40% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 60% disapprove. In July, 38% approved and 61% disapproved. Both results show a large decline in approval of the Court from the levels found in 2020 and early 2021. …

The public continues to oppose the Court’s June decision overturning Roe v. Wade by a wide margin. The decision is opposed by 61%, while 30% favor the ruling and 10% say they lack an opinion. …

On the Court’s major decision this past June that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home, a plurality of the public (38%) supports the decision, with 29% opposed and 33% who say they lack an opinion. CONTINUED

Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll

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Winning A Cost Of Living+ Election

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Democracy Corps conducted a national web survey among 2,770 registered voters from Sept. 9-15, 2022. The data include a base sample of 1,270 registered voters, with large oversamples of 500 Black voters, 500 Hispanic voters, and 500 AAPI voters. The oversample data are statistically weighted to ensure the sample’s regional, age, and gender composition reflects that of the estimated registered voters in the United States.

Democrats have moved into a small 3-point lead in the generic ballot because their partisans are now equally engaged with Republicans and slightly more consolidated, as GOP fractures grow.

But this is a volatile moment where two-thirds believe the country is on the wrong track, inflation puts cost of living to the top of issues to be addressed, crime and border issues could explode, and President Biden’s 55-percent disapproval still creates a strong headwind for Democrats, despite recent gains. CONTINUED

Democracy Corps

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Georgia: Personal and national factors collide in tight Senate

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It’s the personal vs. the partisan in Georgia’s Senate race, where the candidates are close in support, but voters’ rationales for supporting each of them are quite different. Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock has better favorable ratings and character measures, while GOP challenger Herschel Walker’s voters have eyes on Washington and a chance for a Republican Senate.

In all, the new CBS News Battleground Tracker poll in Georgia shows incumbent Warnock with a slight two-point edge over Walker. …

In a rematch of their 2018 race, Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by six points among likely voters overall, and by a wide margin of 30 points among those voters who feel things in Georgia are going well. CONTINUED

CBS News

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Georgia: Warnock Edges Walker in Senate Race, Kemp Leads Abrams for Governor

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U.S. Senator Raphael Warnock (47%) leads his Republican challenger Herschel Walker (42%) by five percentage points among Georgia registered voters, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. However, Warnock’s lead narrows among registered voters who say they definitely plan to vote. In Georgia’s gubernatorial contest Republican incumbent Brian Kemp leads Stacey Abrams by six points among the statewide electorate, a lead which widens to double digits among those who say they definitely plan to vote. Kemp narrowly defeated Abrams for governor in 2018. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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‘Are the Polls Wrong?’ Is the Wrong Question

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… As a professional pollster, my advice to the nerve-wracked polling junkie is simple: Take a deep breath, embrace the uncertainty and go beneath the surface of the polls to better understand the dynamics this year.

It’s true that my industry has struggled at times to accurately gauge public opinion, particularly in the Trump era. Is it possible that we’re missing Republicans or Trump supporters in surveys? Perhaps. But it’s just as wrongheaded to assume that polls are inevitably faulty and that historical trends or calculations to unskew the polls are more important. …

So here are three tips to getting to the one poll that does count: Election Day. CONTINUED

Stephen Clermont (Change Research), Politico Magazine

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Biden’s Latest 42% Job Approval Similar to Prior Presidents’

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President Joe Biden’s latest job approval rating of 42% is essentially unchanged from last month’s 44% and maintains the slight improvement he’s seen from his 38% personal low point in July. Still, the majority of Americans, 56%, disapprove of the way Biden is handling his job. …

Biden’s current approval rating is roughly in line with the ratings of most of his modern predecessors at the same point in their first terms as president. The timing is significant because it is two months before the midterm congressional elections, which are widely seen as a referendum on the sitting president. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

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