Are the Polls Giving Dems False Hope Again?

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… Polling is the lifeblood of politics. It drives press coverage and campaign decision-making. But what if polling is fundamentally broken? What if we are viewing politics through a fun house mirror? …

Is the recent burst of Democratic optimism another case of inaccurate poll-fueled naivete?

No.

While polls may or may not be wrong in certain places, there is plenty of evidence for Democratic resurgence and an improved political environment. First, you can ignore the polls and look at the results in special elections where Democrats consistently outpace their 2020 performance. Second, while inflation is still high, gas prices have been dropping steadily for months. Finally, and most importantly, sometimes it makes sense to ditch the calculator and use your common sense. It’s obvious and apparent the Dobbs decision energized millions and millions of voters. CONTINUED

Dan Pfeiffer, The Message Box

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Why high inflation doesn’t seem to be hurting Democrats

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… Every month, Gallup publishes data on what Americans say is the most important problem facing the country. It’s an open-ended question (meaning respondents can say anything they want), and they’re allowed to give more than one answer.

In August, 37% of adults said that an economic problem was most important. No single non-economic issue came close to topping that. “The government/Poor leadership” category was closest at 20%. Since March, somewhere between 35% and 40% of Americans have named some type of economic issue (e.g., inflation) as the top problem.

Of course, I was brought up under the belief that elections are about “the economy stupid.” So I wanted to see how this year’s findings compare with Americans’ views ahead of earlier elections. I had Gallup pull for me the closest data to Election Day for every election they could. They gave me midterm- and presidential-year data for their poll going back to 1988.

What amazed me was that, on average, 39% said an economic problem was the most important. That is, the economy is no more an issue this year than it has been in other years since 1988, despite how high inflation currently is. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

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NBC News poll shows where the midterm ‘persuadables’ live

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In every election, there are solid Democratic voters and solid Republican voters — and then there are the voters who are less sure of where they stand. Those persuadable voters are often the difference between winning and losing and the NBC News poll shows they are a distinct group that tends to be concentrated in distinct areas.

There are persuadable voters everywhere, but the NBC News poll has consistently shown they are most heavily based in outer suburb counties. Those 1,100 counties hold a plurality of the nation’s up-for-grabs electorate. CONTINUED

Dante Chinni, NBC News

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Abortion, Trump boost midterm prospects for Democrats

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Democrats have pulled even with Republicans ahead of November’s midterm elections, fueled by six-in-10 voters who disapprove of the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, by President Joe Biden’s approval rating improving to its highest mark since October and by Donald Trump’s favorability rating dropping to its lowest level in more than a year.

Still, Republicans maintain key advantages that could catapult them to win control of Congress and governor’s mansions across the country, including 63% of voters who believe that their income is falling behind the cost of living, as well as 58% who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy.

These are the results of a new national NBC News poll, which finds the parties tied on congressional preference among registered voters, 46%-46%, with Democrats just narrowly trailing Republicans in election interest. CONTINUED

Mark Murray, NBC News

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Majority of Latino Voters Out of G.O.P.’s Reach, New Poll Shows

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It has been nearly two years since Donald Trump made surprising gains with Hispanic voters. But Republican dreams of a major realignment of Latino voters drawn to G.O.P. stances on crime and social issues have failed to materialize, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.

The poll — one of the largest nonpartisan surveys of Latino voters since the 2020 election — found that Democrats had maintained a grip on the majority of Latino voters, driven in part by women and the belief that Democrats remained the party of the working class. Overall, Hispanic voters are more likely to agree with Democrats on many issues — immigration, gun policy, climate. They are also more likely to see Republicans as the party of the elite and as holding extreme views. And a majority of Hispanic voters, 56 percent, plan to vote for Democrats this fall, compared with 32 percent for Republicans. CONTINUED

Jennifer Medina, Jazmine Ulloa & Ruth Igielnik, New York Times

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‘A Crisis Coming’: The Twin Threats to American Democracy

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… American democracy is facing two distinct threats, which together represent the most serious challenge to the country’s governing ideals in decades.

The first threat is acute: a growing movement inside one of the country’s two major parties — the Republican Party — to refuse to accept defeat in an election. …

The second threat to democracy is chronic but also growing: The power to set government policy is becoming increasingly disconnected from public opinion.

The run of recent Supreme Court decisions — both sweeping and, according to polls, unpopular — highlight this disconnect. Although the Democratic Party has won the popular vote in seven of the past eight presidential elections, a Supreme Court dominated by Republican appointees seems poised to shape American politics for years, if not decades. And the court is only one of the means through which policy outcomes are becoming less closely tied to the popular will. CONTINUED

David Leonhardt, New York Times

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