Florida: DeSantis grows to double-digit lead, Rubio widens gap

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It’s nearly Election Day, and the frontrunners in Florida’s biggest political horse races are maintaining — or expanding — their leads. An exclusive Spectrum News/Siena College poll snapshots opinions and preferences of 659 likely voters from Oct. 30 through Nov. 1, 2022 with a 4.4% margin of error.

Gov. Ron DeSantis now commands a double-digit lead over his challenger, Charlie Crist. More than half of likely Florida voters (54%) now say they’ll vote to reelect the Republican, while 42% say they’ll cast their ballot for the Democrat. …

Despite the early possibility he’d face a heated challenge for his U.S. Senate seat, Marco Rubio continues to keep Val Demings from gaining ground. A majority of likely voters (51%) now say they’ll vote to keep the Republican in Washington, while 42% want to see him replaced by the Democrat. CONTINUED

Dale Greenstein, Spectrum News

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Confidence in Election Integrity Hides Deep Partisan Divide

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Most Americans are very (34%) or somewhat confident (29%) that votes in the upcoming midterm elections will be accurately cast and counted. …

In most election years since 2004, Gallup has found that Americans who self-identify with the political party of the incumbent president have expressed greater confidence in election accuracy — with two exceptions, 2008 and 2020. …

The current 45 percentage points that separate Republicans’ (40%) and Democrats’ (85%) confidence represents the largest gap Gallup has recorded on this measure since 2004. CONTINUED

Justin McCarthy, Gallup

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Georgia: Walker and Warnock Closely Matched in Senate Race; Kemp Leads Abrams in Governor’s Race

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In the contest for U.S. Senate in Georgia, Republican Herschel Walker and Democrat Raphael Warnock are tied among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters, Warnock edges Walker by 4 points. The contest has experienced little movement among both definite voters and registered voters since late September. In Georgia’s gubernatorial contest, incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams by 8 points among definite voters and 6 points among registered voters statewide. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Pennsylvania: Fetterman Leads Oz in Senate Race; Shapiro with Double-Digit Lead Over Mastriano in Governor’s Race

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In the race for U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman leads Republican Mehmet Oz. Fetterman has a 6-point lead over Oz among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Among registered voters statewide, Fetterman also has a 6-point lead. Fetterman was up 7 against Oz among definite voters and up 10 among the statewide electorate in Marist’s September survey. In Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Josh Shapiro holds onto his double-digit lead against Republican Doug Mastriano among both definite and registered voters statewide. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Arizona: Kelly with Slight Edge in Senate Race; Hobbs and Lake in Tight Contest for Governor

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In the campaign for U.S. Senate in Arizona, Democrat Mark Kelly edges Republican Blake Masters among those who say they definitely plan to vote in this year’s election. Kelly’s advantage has narrowed among the statewide electorate since September. Kelly is currently +4 points against Masters among registered voters statewide, down from the 10-point lead he enjoyed earlier. In the Arizona governor’s contest, just 1 point separates Republican Katie Hobbs and Democrat Kari Lake among those who say they definitely plan to vote. This is a 4-point shift from September when Lake had a 3-point edge against Hobbs. Hobbs is also +1 point over Lake among registered voters statewide. CONTINUED

Marist Institute for Public Opinion

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Where Americans stand on the 2022 congressional elections

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The latest Economist/YouGov Poll finds that among likely voters, Democrats and Republicans are neck and neck when it comes to the congressional candidate people intend to vote for, or say they lean toward voting for: Each party gets 49% of the vote. …

Should the Republicans control Congress after the election, what do Americans expect will happen? Just 36% think abortion will be outlawed nationally — including 55% of Democrats and 17% of Republicans. A majority of Democrats (55%) expect government spending on social services will be reduced, as do 32% of Republicans. More Republicans (52%) than Democrats (12%) think inflation will go down.

One in four expect an impeachment of Biden if Republicans take control of both chambers of Congress, and this expectation is about as common in each major party: 29% of Democrats and 32% of Republicans think this will happen. Larger shares in each party expect a decrease in aid to Ukraine: 45% of Democrats and 36% of Republicans say this. CONTINUED

Kathy Frankovic & Taylor Orth, YouGov

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