Six Days to Go: House rating changes; Senate, governor updates

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Key Points
• The race for the Senate continues to lack a clear favorite, but the majority remains within reach for Republicans despite a headache-plagued campaign year.
• Republicans hope to cut into the Leans or Likely Democratic gubernatorial races as they seek to net seats despite the likely losses of Maryland and Massachusetts.
• A handful of House rating changes serve as a small taste of our final update Monday, when we’ll offer our final picks for the midterm. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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Wisconsin: Senate and governor’s races are tossups

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A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds the races for both U.S. Senate and governor are tossups one week before election day.

Among likely voters in the election for U.S. Senate, Ron Johnson is supported by 50% and Mandela Barnes by 48%. …

Among likely voters 48% support Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers, while 48% favor Republican Tim Michels. …

Inflation ranks as the top issue concern in this poll. After peaking in June, concern about inflation has been slightly lower since then but remains atop the list. CONTINUED

Marquette Law School Poll

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Pennsylvania: Senate Debate Shows Little Impact

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John Fetterman’s edge over Mehmet Oz on key issues in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate contest has narrowed, although the Democrat continues to be seen as having a better understanding of voters’ day-to-day concerns. The last Monmouth University Poll of this contest finds that concerns about Fetterman’s health, particularly in light of last week’s televised debate, have been raised by some voters, but the impact on their actual candidate choice has been minimal. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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Fox News Poll: Walker gains ground in Georgia Senate race

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After two overtime U.S. Senate elections in 2020, the Peach State is poised for another nail-biter as Republican candidate Herschel Walker has closed the gap with Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock. Georgia law stipulates a 50% requirement for victory, and with the closeness of the race, the battle may be headed for a runoff.

The latest Fox News survey of Georgia registered voters, released Wednesday, shows it roughly even, with Warnock up by just 1 point over Walker: 44% to 43%. In September, the Democrat was up by 5 percentage points; in July, he held a 4-point lead.

The contest shifts in Walker’s favor when focusing exclusively on those saying they have already voted or are certain to vote: 45% Warnock, 46% Walker. In September, it was 47-43% Warnock. CONTINUED

Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Fox News Poll: Half of Pennsylvanians say Senate debate a factor in their vote

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The recent debate between U.S. Senate candidates Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz matters to many Pennsylvania voters.

In one of the closest contests this election, a new Fox News survey finds 51% say the debate is a factor in their Senate vote, and that group favors Oz by over 20 points. Among the nearly half saying it is not at all a factor, Fetterman is preferred by nearly 30. …

The poll, released Wednesday, finds the overall vote preference mostly holds steady: Fetterman bests Oz by 45-42%. Last month, it was 45-41%. In late July, Fetterman was up by 11 points. Among voters who say they’re certain to vote or already have, Fetterman’s up 47-43%. …

In the governor’s race, 64% of Democrat John Shapiro’s support is enthusiastic compared to 46% for Republican Doug Mastriano. CONTINUED

Dana Blanton & Victoria Balara, Fox News

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Here’s what voters said in our last poll before Election Day

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With one week to go before midterm elections, U.S. voters are evenly split in their support between Democratic and Republican candidates, according to the latest PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll. The latest numbers show a significant shift since June, when Democrats enjoyed a 7-percentage point lead over Republicans, shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.

Among independent voters, Republicans hold a 15 percentage point advantage over Democrats with 45 percent backing the GOP and 30 percent supporting the party currently in power. CONTINUED

Laura Santhanam, PBS NewsHour

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