Planet Money tries election polling

· Leave a Comment

It’s another election cycle and many are wondering: Will the polls miss again this year? Because it’s true, polling has gotten a lot tougher these days. People aren’t picking up the phone. Nobody wants to talk to pollsters. It’s becoming a crisis for the polling industry.

Today on the show, we head to Marist College — home of the Marist Poll — to learn how to be pollsters ourselves. We break down the science of polling, and find out all the tricks that pollsters use to get people to finish their surveys. CONTINUED

Jeff Guo & Nick Fountain, Planet Money

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable

· Leave a Comment

Here are a few things to keep in mind about the next week’s midterm elections.

Let me start with a preface. The Democrats could do fairly badly on Tuesday yet still better than presidential parties have historically performed in similar situations. This could be true without the election providing a clear message about which party or ideological faction is following the best political strategy. Pundits and politicians like election results to send a clear message about which political factions are right and wrong. People want elections to provide lessons. I’m not sure this one will. We’ll see. There are many potential results “in the middle,” where Democrats lose seats but not as many as parties in their position usually do, which won’t provide an unambiguous lesson.

But regardless, the bottom line is that the president’s party always loses House seats when presidential approval is in the 40s. Since modern polling was invented, presidents have only gained seats in midterms when their approval was in the 60s. However, there are two unusual things happening in 2022 that lead me to think it is at least possible that 2022 will fit the historical pattern poorly. Or it might fit the pattern perfectly! Who knows! Either way, these two things greatly increase uncertainty. CONTINUED

Jonathan M. Ladd (Georgetown), Mischiefs of Faction

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Why New Hampshire may deliver a Senate surprise

· Leave a Comment

Political buffs have been saying for weeks that the race for Senate control will come down to three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Arizona sometimes thrown in. But is that list too limited?

Political history – and a spat of late spending in the race – suggests that we should widen our focus. Republicans have a real chance at flipping Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan’s seat in New Hampshire. …

New Hampshire is exactly the type of seat you might expect Republicans to be competitive in, given the polling we’ve seen nationally. A CNN/SSRS poll published this week put Republicans ahead by four points on the generic congressional ballot. That’s an 8-point shift toward the Republicans from the final 2020 presidential result.

An 8-point shift in New Hampshire from the 2020 result would put the seat in play. In 2020, Democrats won the presidential vote by seven points in New Hampshire. CONTINUED

Harry Enten, CNN

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Americans express broad concerns about the risk of political violence

· Leave a Comment

Broad, bipartisan numbers of Americans are concerned that political divisions are increasing the risk of politically motivated violence in this country, with majorities across the board highly concerned about it in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll. Who gets the blame, however, differs sharply among partisan and ideological groups.

A week after the attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a vast 88% of adults express concern that political divisions have gotten to the point that there’s an increased risk of politically motivated violence in this country. Sixty-three percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, are “very” concerned. CONTINUED

Gary Langer, ABC News

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Pandemic Outlook Recovers as U.S. Leaders’ Messaging Falters

· Leave a Comment

About two-thirds of Americans believe the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. is getting better, and 44% — a new high — now say the pandemic is over. Both readings are up by double digits since July when optimism was waning amid rising cases. …

Americans in all party groups have become more likely to say the pandemic is over since July, including increases of 12 points among Republicans, 14 points among Democrats and 10 points among independents. However, Republicans are the only party with a majority saying the pandemic is over. CONTINUED

Megan Brenan, Gallup

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack

Where we are headed into Election Day

· Leave a Comment

We are just a hair away from Election Day, and so much history has already happened. Sky-high inflation, the worst in a generation, the overturn of the federal right to abortion, and the results of a presidential election violently contested. All this is the political and economic context framing this cycle.

Millions have already cast ballots early and by mail, though nowhere near the levels we saw in 2020. It’s unclear how this will shape the ultimate outcome of the election. Enthusiasm matters in midterm elections.

Below, in five charts, we discuss the top things to keep in mind about the midterms, the polls, and voting ahead of November 8th. CONTINUED

Clifford Young & Sarah Feldman, Ipsos

The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack