The beginning of the end for Donald Trump? Probably.

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… Like other political analysts, I have come to believe over the past few years that a large chunk of the GOP — maybe a third or even more — retains its allegiance to Trump, and that will not change.

But over the past two midterms (2018 and 2022), the last presidential election and a handful of other events (including an abortion referendum in Kansas and special elections), signs of Trump’s growing weakness are undeniable.

That doesn’t mean that Trump’s hold on the GOP has disappeared or that he can’t win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. A crowded Republican contest would improve Trump’s prospects, and he has demonstrated that he can create an “us versus them” message that resonates in conservative and Republican circles. CONTINUED

Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call

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Paging Elon Musk: Poll shows Americans back Twitter safeguards amid worry over hate speech

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Americans by overwhelming numbers express concern about the rise of antisemitism and white nationalism in the United States, a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, and most say social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook have an obligation to curtail hate speech on their sites.

Those findings of public opinion conflict with the actions of billionaire Elon Musk, a self-described “free speech absolutist” who bought Twitter in October. …

In the poll, a 52% majority of those surveyed say social media companies have a responsibility to restrict hateful or inaccurate posts. In contrast, 39% say the sites should be an open forum, even if speech is hateful or inaccurate. CONTINUED

Susan Page, USA Today

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Who are the extremists?

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… As I argued here earlier, poor-quality Republican candidates played a key role in suppressing the widely anticipated red wave, and their extremism contributed significantly to the diminished quality of many defeated Republicans.

But before Democratic triumphalism becomes dogma, it is important to recognize that, in the public mind, both parties have an extremism problem.

The Votecast survey conducted by University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center asked whether each party was “too tolerant of extremist groups.” Fifty-three percent said Republicans were too tolerant of extremists and 53 percent said Democrats were. Identical numbers.

In response to another question, 47 percent said Republicans need more moderate candidates while 49 percent responded that way about Democrats. CONTINUED

Mark Mellman (Mellman Group), The Hill

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Trump said we’d get tired of winning. He’ll fall because the GOP is tired of losing.

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Since I never expected Donald Trump to be president, I shuddered at the prospect of participating in a symposium on the theme, “Is this the end of Trump?” How often does anyone want to risk being wrong?

But as the investment funds always warn, past performance is no guarantee of future results. After years of confounding his detractors by surviving, he has now reached the end of the line. It may take a while. His poll ratings among Republicans will not come down all of a sudden. Nonetheless, the man who labeled Jeb Bush the “low energy” candidate is perilously close to deserving the “low energy” moniker himself. CONTINUED

E.J. Dionne, Jr., Brookings Institution

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Low Expectations for New Congress

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Fewer than 1 in 5 Americans expect that Republican control of the House of Representatives will lead to a change for the better in Washington. In fact, a majority do not foresee this leading to much change either way. The Monmouth University Poll also finds the public is negative toward both political parties when it comes to focusing on key economic issues, but Democrats tend to hold a more positive opinion of their party’s congressional leadership.

Just 18% of Americans expect that GOP control of the House will change Washington for the better. Another 21% say it will change for the worse, but just over half (51%) say much won’t change because of the switch in House leadership. …

None of the current party leaders in Congress earn positive ratings among the American public, although the Democrats do better among fellow partisans than the Republicans. CONTINUED

Monmouth University Polling Institute

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CNN Poll: Americans have little appetite for Biden-Trump rematch in 2024

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There’s little appetite for a 2020 rematch in the coming presidential election, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, as majorities of registered voters within each party say they’d rather see someone new nominated in 2024.

About 6 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they want their party to nominate someone other than former President Donald Trump in 2024 (62%), while a similar 59% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say they’d like to see someone other than President Joe Biden at the top of their ticket in the next presidential election. CONTINUED

Jennifer Agiesta, CNN

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