Americans want compromise, but have no confidence Congress will work together

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Three-quarters of Americans say they want members of Congress to compromise with the other side, the highest in at least a decade, but most have no confidence they will, the latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Seventy-four percent said Congress should compromise. But Americans have gotten more pessimistic that their leaders will try to reach across the aisle. The 58% who said they have no confidence Congress will do so is more than double the level found in 2008, when just 23% said so. CONTINUED

Domenico Montanaro, NPR News

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Party Images Stable After Midterm Elections

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After the midterm elections that resulted in the Republican Party gaining a narrow majority in the U.S. House of Representatives and the Democratic Party holding on to their slim edge in the U.S. Senate, Americans’ views of the two major parties are essentially unchanged.

Forty-two percent of U.S. adults say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, compared with 44% in September. Meanwhile, the 39% of Americans who view the Democratic Party positively is the same as it was in September. As such, Republicans retain a slight advantage in favorability, a rarity over the past decade. CONTINUED

Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup

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The End of a Golden Age?

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Key Points
• American elections are becoming harder to predict.
• Part of this is likely because of the immense changes and disruptions we are seeing not only in the United States, but in the world as a whole.
• If the underlying social phenomena are less stable, then predictions become unavoidably chancier. CONTINUED

David Peyton, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

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The Electoral College in the 21st Century

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Key Points
• The United States is in an extremely competitive era of presidential elections.
• In the 6 elections this century, the popular vote margin has been less than 5 points in all but 1 of them.
• Many of the states have been consistent in their presidential voting since 2000, although there have been key shifts that have altered the roster of most competitive swing states.
• Relative to the nation, much of the West has become more Democratic over the past 2 decades, along with some other pockets of the country, while many states in the Northeast, Midwest, and Greater South have become more Republican.
• The most competitive states in 2020 may be the most competitive in 2024: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin in the Great Lakes region and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina in the Sun Belt. CONTINUED

Kyle Kondik, Sabato’s Crystal Ball

Electoral College voting record since 2000

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Fox News Poll: Americans are down on the economy but hopeful for the country

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At year’s end, Americans’ economic views are decidedly negative. Most continue to say the economy is in bad shape and nearly twice as many think it will get worse next year as think it will get better. Inflation is a hardship for three-quarters, while another 6-in-10 rate their personal financial situation negatively.

And yet, a 53% majority is hopeful about the future of the country, a notable increase from the 43% who were hopeful one year ago. The increase in optimism comes from both Democrats (+11 points since December 2021) and Republicans (+13 points). Still, Democrats (71%) are considerably more optimistic than Republicans (42%) and independents (40%). CONTINUED

Fox News

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Sinema aligns with independents. Smart!

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Party switchers always make news, and Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party for the independent middle ground has sent shock waves through what was thought to be a settled Senate. …

Her surprise announcement reflects what has been a largely overlooked political milestone for independents this year. The 2022 election marks a historic high point for independents, going from 27 percent in 2020 to 31 percent of the electorate this year, according to preliminary data from the Edison Research national exit poll. Before this election, the largest percentage that independents had comprised in an election from 1984 forward at the congressional level was 30 percent in 1990, 2016 and 2018. CONTINUED

David Winston (Winston Group), Roll Call

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