… Like other political analysts, I have come to believe over the past few years that a large chunk of the GOP — maybe a third or even more — retains its allegiance to Trump, and that will not change.
But over the past two midterms (2018 and 2022), the last presidential election and a handful of other events (including an abortion referendum in Kansas and special elections), signs of Trump’s growing weakness are undeniable.
That doesn’t mean that Trump’s hold on the GOP has disappeared or that he can’t win the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. A crowded Republican contest would improve Trump’s prospects, and he has demonstrated that he can create an “us versus them” message that resonates in conservative and Republican circles. CONTINUED
Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call
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