While politics in Washington remain gridlocked, the conservative revolution has been thriving outside the Capitol beltway. Republicans in states across the Midwest and the South are determined to eviscerate liberal policies and to entrench the political power of the right. … Not only are Republicans today in charge of more […] Read more »
Does Forecasting an Election Change the Outcome?
There’s been a lot of digital ink spilled recently over the rise of election forecasting models. … I won’t get into the debate over whose model is better, or whether forecasts are bad or good for political science. Rather, I wanted to address an interesting question raised by Brian Rosenwald, a […] Read more »
Why Dem voters may not show up this fall
Countless pixels have been expended on the Democrats’ “midterm drop-off problem,” in which core Democratic groups such as young voters, minorities and single women are expected to go to the polls in lower percentages than GOP groups, putting Dem control of the Senate in peril. What if a key part […] Read more »
Why We’re Not Holding State Legislators Accountable
… In his recent award-winning dissertation at Princeton, political scientist Steve Rogers examined voting patterns in state legislative elections. It turns out, for one thing, that people’s knowledge of their state legislature is rather paltry. … But beyond that, people aren’t really distinguishing between state legislators and other officeholders when […] Read more »
At Risk in Senate, Democrats Seek to Rally Blacks
With their Senate majority imperiled, Democrats are trying to mobilize African-Americans outraged by the shooting in Ferguson, Mo., to help them retain control of at least one chamber of Congress for President Obama’s final two years in office. … The push is an attempt to counter Republicans’ many advantages in […] Read more »
How Black Turnout Could Impact November
The protests in Ferguson, Mo., have brought national attention to the racial tensions there and shined a light on low turnout among African American voters in the city’s local elections. Voter registration efforts accompanied protests this week. But with congressional elections coming this fall, one question out of Ferguson is […] Read more »