The electorate is increasingly divided by race, education, gender and generation, and these fissures could grow even wider in the 2016 election. CONT. Nate Cohn & Amanda Cox, New York Times Read more »
Thought Given to Presidential Election Matches 2008 Levels
Three in four Americans are giving “quite a lot” of thought to the upcoming presidential election, a possible sign of high voter turnout this November. In the 2008 presidential campaign that produced the highest voter-turnout percentage in 40 years, a late-May poll showed a level of interest similar to this […] Read more »
Is Trump Expanding the Electorate?
There’s little doubt that Donald Trump has changed the rules of campaigning in the 21st century. Or, more accurately, he’s the first to understand how to effectively campaign in a 21st century media environment. Yet, winning the media cycle is different from winning a campaign. And, as my colleagues and […] Read more »
High Primary Turnouts: Any Clues for the Fall?
No matter what one thinks of this often surreal presidential primary campaign, it has been a hit at the ballot box. Republicans have already smashed their record of 20.8 million ballots, set in 2008. Through the May 10 contests, the 2016 GOP primary turnout stands at 26.1 million and counting. […] Read more »
Donald Trump Is Not Expanding the GOP
Donald Trump likes to say he has created a political movement that has drawn “millions and millions” of new voters into the Republican Party. “It’s the biggest thing happening in politics,” Trump has said. “All over the world, they’re talking about it,” he’s bragged. But a Politico analysis of the […] Read more »
Primary turnout doesn’t count
Data-driven journalism is a blessing. But one of its less salubrious side effects is the tendency on the part of some — mostly non-data journalists — to see everything can be that counted as meaningful. It’s not. This brings us to the discussion about relative turnout in Republican and Democratic […] Read more »