As even casual observers of elections know, raw public opinion is only modestly instructive about likely results. If people don’t go to the polls, their views will not affect the outcome. Turnout always matters, and in close elections it can prove decisive. So what do we know about likely turnout […] Read more »
The 270 Project: Try To Predict Who Will Win The Election
… We at NPR Politics wanted a data-driven, quantitative way to answer the fundamental question of whether Trump can win, or if this is Hillary Clinton’s race to lose — and give readers the power to test it out themselves. There’s perhaps no better way to do that than through […] Read more »
Women vote at higher rates than men. That might help Clinton in November.
Hillary Clinton owes her historic victory in the race for the Democratic nomination in no small part to substantial support among women. In every primary, the former secretary of state won more votes from women than from men, with the gender gap — her support among women compared with her […] Read more »
Exit Polls, and Why the Primary Was Not Stolen From Bernie Sanders
The background music of my life is the steady drumbeat of tweets about how Hillary Clinton stole the presidential primary from Bernie Sanders. … The allegations are remarkably consistent. They go like this: Mr. Sanders did better in the early exit polls than he did in the final result. Therefore, […] Read more »
Are voters really guided by gender stereotypes? New research says no.
Kathleen Dolan is a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and the author of the recent book “When Does Gender Matter? Women Candidates and Gender Stereotypes in American Elections.” Her findings contradict a great deal of conventional wisdom about gender and elections. She kindly answered some questions […] Read more »
To win, Trump needs to get non-college grads to the polls
Donald Trump won the Republican nomination for president in large part because of voters who have not graduated from college. … Will he be able to rally these less educated voters to win the general election in November? Given his difficulties with other groups of voters, his campaign might view […] Read more »