President Donald Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to carry Pennsylvania since 1988. Doing so helped him secure victory nationally. On Tuesday, the first major statewide elections since 2016 take place in the Keystone State, and the Pennsylvania electorate looks to be in a far different mood. The state […] Read more »
Are Women Candidates Winning More In 2018?
There’s already a record number of women running for House seats and governorships in 2018 — and women Senate candidates are on track to break records as well. On the first big night of the 2018 primaries this week, those women fared particularly well. CONT. Danielle Kurtzleben, NPR Read more »
Red waves, scrambled Democrats, ideal Republicans: Three myths about this week’s primaries
Republicans spent Wednesday in a perpetual state of high-fiving after coal baron and convicted criminal Don Blankenship lost his bid for the party’s U.S. Senate nomination in West Virginia. The party, according to President Trump, had nominated candidates “who have a great chance of winning in November.” Turnout, according to […] Read more »
A poll shows Republicans pulling even in congressional races. That’s not the whole story.
CNN is justifiably hyped about its new poll offering a surprising assessment of this November’s congressional races. “Democrats’ 2018 advantage is nearly gone,” its article about the poll trumpets, a function of the mostly erased gap between the Democrats and the Republicans on the generic-ballot question (that is, asking respondents […] Read more »
Unable to Excite the Base? Moderate Candidates Still Tend to Outdo Extreme Ones
Donald J. Trump’s rise to the G.O.P. nomination and eventual presidential victory gave heft to the idea that extreme candidates can beat moderates by galvanizing their party’s base. That premise is shaping competitive races in both parties. But an analysis of more than 30 years of House general elections suggests […] Read more »
They Voted for Obama, Then Went for Trump. Can Democrats Win Them Back?
… The swing of Obama voters to Mr. Trump proved a decisive factor in the 2016 presidential election. Of the more than 650 counties that chose Mr. Obama twice, about a third flipped to Mr. Trump. Many were in states critical to Mr. Trump’s win, like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and […] Read more »