Unable to Excite the Base? Moderate Candidates Still Tend to Outdo Extreme Ones

Donald J. Trump’s rise to the G.O.P. nomination and eventual presidential victory gave heft to the idea that extreme candidates can beat moderates by galvanizing their party’s base. That premise is shaping competitive races in both parties.

But an analysis of more than 30 years of House general elections suggests the opposite. CONT.

Lynn Vavreck (UCLA), New York Times