Key Points• The spending decisions by big outside House groups can inform us about the most competitive House races.• So far, outside groups have spent money in 57 House districts. The lion’s share of those districts that have seen spending are held by Democrats, indicating that Democrats are playing significantly […] Read more »
The Great Senate Stalemate
… It remains entirely possible that November’s results will leave the Senate divided again at 50–50, something that has not happened in consecutive elections since the Seventeenth Amendment established the direct election of senators more than a century ago. … One of the most powerful trends in modern politics has […] Read more »
Majority of Americans Believe Abortion and Same-Sex Marriage Should be Guaranteed Rights
In the wake of the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, 69% of Americans believe the option of having an abortion before the 15th week of pregnancy should be a guaranteed right, according to the newest edition of the Grinnell College National Poll. The results of the poll, conducted […] Read more »
Are Political Winds Blowing in Republicans’ Favor Again?
For most of the summer, President Biden and the Democrats had the political winds at their backs. They saw their poll numbers rise as gas prices fell, as the Supreme Court refocused voters on abortion, and as the Jan. 6 hearings and the investigation into Donald J. Trump’s handling of […] Read more »
4 charts that show the GOP’s 2022 popularity gap
A month ago, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said out loud what many Republicans were undoubtedly feeling. Effectively, the message was: We’ve got a shot at a good 2022 midterm election, but some of these Trump candidates could screw it all up for us. At the time, there was […] Read more »
Why Stacey Abrams is a clear underdog in Georgia
The 2022 elections are, so far, shaping up to be better than Democrats had imagined. They’re now favored to hold the Senate, and they appear likely to keep their losses in the House below the historical midterm average for the party that controls the White House. They also seem to […] Read more »