The past three presidential elections have been head-snapping for many Americans: a sharp turn into what many people believed was the future of electoral politics with the elections of Barack Obama and an even sharper reversal with the victory of Donald Trump. People are still making sense of it all. […] Read more »
The Blue-Collar Elephant in the Room
There’s an elephant in the Republican Party’s midterm room. Discussion about how to close the yawning generic ballot gap has focused on building the wall, selling the tax cuts, and emphasizing how President Trump has delivered on judicial nominees and deregulation. All of these issues are of particular import to […] Read more »
Inside Trump’s GOP: not what you think
Four months before the election, Democracy Corps started conducting deep qualitative and quantitative research with the base voters who identify with the Republican Party. The findings paint a picture very different from the one that assumes the GOP is Trump’s party. That realization reveals big opportunities for progressives in the […] Read more »
Senate Observations: Placing 2018 in the Context of Upper Chamber Elections Since 1913
As the Crystal Ball has noted repeatedly since early 2017, the Senate elections in the 2018 cycle feature two contrasting forces: highly polarized, partisan voting in elections running up against a tendency for non-presidential party incumbents to do well in midterms, even in states that backed the other party in […] Read more »
Is Bannon right that white, college-educated women have given up on Republicans?
Earlier this month, former White House adviser Stephen K. Bannon told the Daily Beast that while college-educated women were tricky for President Trump and Republicans, their votes might still be within reach. “College-educated Republican women in the suburbs are a challenge,” he said. “You are not going to be able […] Read more »
Trump’s two-track strategy: The rich get richer, and the poor get distracted
… Thanks to a combination of hyperpartisanship, Trump’s willingness to say things that others wouldn’t and a stronger economy, Trump’s tenure as president has been an explicit manifestation of what once was a tricky balance. For years, many Republicans have worked to effect sweeping cuts and benefits for the wealthiest […] Read more »