Democrats have hit an unexpected speed bump in their drive to regain control of Congress: unsettling signs that the party may not generate as much turnout or support among Latino voters this fall as it expected. Despite a procession of provocations from President Donald Trump — from ending deportation protections […] Read more »
Politics Podcast: Should The Press Respond To Trump’s Attacks?
President Trump’s attacks on the press have reached a new level in recent weeks. On Sunday, he called the press, “very dangerous & sick” and wrote that the media can “cause War.” The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team talks about what the goal of the president’s rhetoric is and how the […] Read more »
Why the Midterms Won’t Be Won by Playing to the Base
Most strategists and analysts say this November’s midterms will be determined by turnout. According to this view, whichever party more fully energizes its partisans will come out on top. New data, though, shows this common wisdom has it exactly backward. It’s the voters who sit between the two parties, not […] Read more »
65 races will decide the House. Here’s how Democrats could take control.
With 95 days to go until Election Day, the House majority is up for grabs. President Donald Trump’s below-average approval ratings, Democrats’ enthusiasm edge and a historic number of GOP open seats make Democrats the slight favorites to take control in the lower chamber. But what’s their route to picking […] Read more »
What Ohio’s special election will tell us about November
The Ohio special election in the 12th Congressional District is coming down to the wire. In the last major tea leaves before the 2018 midterms, an average of recent polls puts Republican Troy Balderson just ahead of Democrat Danny O’Connor in their bid to succeed Republican Pat Tiberi. In a […] Read more »
Study shows Democratic voter enthusiasm surging
As the 2018 primary season has rolled through the spring and summer, Democratic enthusiasm and turnout has been a dominant story in state after state, from New York to California. This week, the Pew Research Center put all those state-level stories into a national context with some eye-grabbing numbers. The […] Read more »