A month ago, a public poll showed President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just 2 points in Arkansas. That would be easy to dismiss as an outlier, considering Trump won the state by 27 points four years ago, except for the growing mountain of data elsewhere that is evidence […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: 20 Races Move Towards Democrats
President Trump’s abysmal polling since the pandemic began is seriously jeopardizing down-ballot GOP fortunes. We may be approaching the point at which dozens of House Republicans will need to decide whether to cut the president loose and run on a “check and balance” message, offering voters insurance against congressional Democrats […] Read more »
Even if the Polls Are Really Off, Trump Is Still in Trouble
With Joe Biden claiming almost a double-digit lead in national polls, one question still seems to loom over the race: Can we trust the polls after 2016? It’s a good question. But for now, it’s not as important as you might guess. If the election were held today, Mr. Biden […] Read more »
More Ways of Looking at the Electoral College Picture
For the last 36 years, the Cook Political Report has handicapped the Electoral College with our ratings chart — placing states and districts in categories of Toss Up, Lean, Likely and Solid Republican/Democrat. … We also realize that there are more dynamic ways to illustrate the electoral path to the […] Read more »
The Future Shape of the Senate
Key Points• The Constitution divides the Senate into three “classes” that face the voters on six-year cycles. Under today’s political dynamics, the class that faced the voters in 2018 was favorable to the Republicans, while the class that faces the voters in 2020 is favorable to the Democrats.• What about […] Read more »
How to read Biden’s massive lead in the polls
There are two ways to read both the state and national polling that shows President Trump significantly behind former vice president Joe Biden. You can plausibly argue that the polls are more unreliable on a statewide basis than in 2016, so they’re all irrelevant. Alternatively, you can take the polls […] Read more »