Key Points• Recently-released fundraising reports indicate a mismatch between the best-funded GOP candidates and the districts in which they are competing.• At this point, Democrats are more likely to net House seats than Republicans, although we’re still not expecting much net change overall.• There are eight rating changes this week: […] Read more »
What two high-quality polls tell us about the presidential race
… There are a lot of professionally done polls out there, but over the years, I haven’t been hesitant to offer particularly kind words about the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and the Fox News poll. They tend not to jump around wildly, which is fine with me since, barring […] Read more »
Why Trump can’t make the election about Biden
Reality counts. That may be the biggest message of the 2020 presidential campaign so far. While President Donald Trump shuffles his campaign staff and more Republicans grumble that he has failed to formulate a clear message and stick to it, a wide array of public and private polls signal that […] Read more »
Big Polling Leads Tend to Erode. Is Biden’s Edge Different?
Joe Biden’s commanding advantage in the race for the White House shows no sign of abating. … After a quarter-century of closely fought elections, it is easy to assume that wide leads are unsustainable in today’s deeply polarized country. Only Barack Obama in 2008 managed to win the national vote […] Read more »
Joe Biden continues to run well ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 pace
… There is no doubt that Biden is leading the race for president right now. He holds an edge nationally, as well as in the key swing states like Pennsylvania. In spite of all these numbers, people continuously point to 2016 in order to dismiss or at least put a […] Read more »
Fox News Poll: Biden holds lead over Trump as coronavirus concerns grip nation
Coronavirus infected the election. The virus is the top issue to voters, over half of them disapprove of how President Trump’s handling it, and they increasingly trust Joe Biden to do a better job on it. That keeps Biden ahead in the presidential race, according to a Fox News survey […] Read more »