Prediction markets move the fundamental model upward about 15 percentage points for each contested Electoral College election. I have run my presidential fundamental model (the underlying academic paper is joint work with Patrick Hummel) and posted the results on the PredictWise Presidential General Election forecast page. The key takeaway is […] Read more »
Why Donald Trump has a 90 percent chance of winning the Republican nomination
New Hampshire, South Carolina and now Nevada: the evidence is mounting that Donald Trump will be the Republican presidential nominee. Those who doubt a Trump victory believe that Republican voters will at some point come to their senses, while others see a narrowing field as one that favors Trump’s competition. […] Read more »
Why Political Pundits Are Becoming More Wrong
This is a difficult time in the business of political predictions. … It’s not simply the unexpected strength of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, both of whom, it was assumed, would run aground before they could even reach this week’s Republican caucus in Nevada or the Democratic primary in South […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Nominations? Lessons From Iowa and New Hampshire
… Despite their small populations, tiny numbers of national convention delegates and racially homogeneous electorates, the national parties continue to allow Iowa and New Hampshire to exert an outsized influence on the selection of the presidential nominees by kicking off the primary and caucus season. Because they go first and […] Read more »
Something better than polls for political predictions? You bet!
What’s the best way to predict who will win the 2016 election? The answer may not be polls or pundits, but market forces. PBS NewsHour Read more »
State of election markets
With the Republican field down to just legitimate five candidates (and Ben Carson), Donald Trump continues to hold the top slot. The Democratic side saw very little movement over the last week, despite a dominant win by Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire. … Trump is heavily favored to carry South […] Read more »