New Hampshire happened exactly as expected with Donald Trump and John Kasich finishing first and second in the Republican primary and Bernie Sanders winning the Democratic primary. … Marco Rubio’s finish is a failure and a confirmation that his poor debate performance on Saturday, February 6 was interpreted poorly by […] Read more »
For Polls, New Hampshire Brings Redemption After Failure in Iowa
Polling in the New Hampshire presidential primary accurately forecast victories by Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Bernie Sanders, a reversal from earlier this month when surveys failed to predict voters’ behavior in the Iowa caucuses. … The accurate calls were especially significant because New Hampshire’s primary is a famously tough […] Read more »
What’s At Stake In New Hampshire’s Republican Primary
Before the Iowa Republican caucuses last week, we warned you that the uncertainty in the race was high and that the polls might be way off. That’s even more true here in New Hampshire. At least we know that Donald Trump will finish first on the Republican side? Well, probably. […] Read more »
Opinion Polls Matter—Even When They’re Wrong
Given that opinion polls failed to predict the result of the Republican caucus in Iowa, it might be wise not to place too much stress on what they’re saying about the New Hampshire primaries tomorrow night. We can’t simply ignore the polls, though. Often, they turn out be right, or […] Read more »
State of election markets: An interesting week saw Trump fall … then gain
An interesting and meaningful week saw Donald Trump fall after his results in Iowa and then gain after his results in New Hampshire (debate that is). Marco Rubio, after his strong third in Iowa, once again failed to capitalize on his moment by collapsing during the eighth Republican debate. But, […] Read more »
Why you should be skeptical about polls
Famed Iowa researcher J. Ann Selzer explains how viewers should interpret political polls and why polls are becoming harder and harder to conduct. CONT. CNN Read more »