… For those shocked by the GOP results, take heart: Iowa is notoriously fickle, and not even top pollsters firmly predicted a win for Trump or Cruz, despite assumptions to the contrary. And it’d be wise to steel yourself for more unpredictability in the minutes, hours, and days leading up […] Read more »
Why Iowa Changed Rubio’s And Trump’s Nomination Odds So Much
Marco Rubio finished in third in Iowa — a “strong third” in which he outperformed his polls, but third nevertheless. And yet, his chances of winning the Republican nomination nearly doubled according to the bookmaker Betfair, from about 30 percent before the Iowa caucuses to 55 percent now. Meanwhile, Donald […] Read more »
Tuesday morning quarterbacking the Iowa Poll
Monday night was a thriller, no doubt about it. Of course, the outcome of the Republican caucuses was not identical to the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll published Saturday night. We had the top four candidates identified, all right. But we had Donald Trump with the win over […] Read more »
After polling shock, Ann Selzer happy to be the ‘silver standard’ in Iowa
The 2016 Iowa caucuses were more polled, more frequently, than any previous contest. Starting in November, there were multiple weekly looks at the Iowa electorate, many of them earning bright red chyrons on cable news. But there was only one Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll — and only one Ann […] Read more »
So how badly did the Iowa polls do?
Donald Trump loves to talk about them, most candidates pretend to ignore them, and lots of voters get sick of them, but polls have a ubiquitous role in American politics. How’d they do in Iowa? On the Democratic side, not bad. On the GOP side, worse. CONT. David Lauter, Los […] Read more »
Polls Were Way Off on Donald Trump. Here’s What It Means.
Donald Trump was at the top of each of the last 10 polls in Iowa, but his lead failed to hold up on caucus night Monday. In the end, his seven-point lead in polling averages amounted to a three-point loss to Ted Cruz. That 10-point swing was enough to make […] Read more »