The final Des Moines Register poll was just released, showing Donald Trump leading the Republican field in Iowa with 28 percent, Ted Cruz with 23 percent and Marco Rubio with 15 percent. Hillary Clinton was ahead of Bernie Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, on the Democratic side. The political […] Read more »
Trump v. Rubio for GOP Nomination
It is looking increasingly like Donald Trump will win the race for the non-establishment candidate and Marco Rubio is poised to seize the race for the establishment candidate (although there is still a lot more uncertainty there). This seems like a shocking turn of events over the last few days, […] Read more »
How Much Can Really Change Before Iowa Votes
The tremendous buildup to the Iowa caucuses is about to culminate in real voting. We’re less than a week away. But anything can still happen … there’s still plenty of time … right? Sort of. CONT. Harry Enten, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Bloomberg for President?
Michael Bloomberg announced that he may run. Currently he is trading at about 1-2% to be president; this value is unconditional, so would likely go up, should he run. I see how Michael Bloomberg could get upwards of 20% or more of the popular vote for president of the United […] Read more »
State of election markets: Meaningful movement
As we enter the home stretch of the 2016 presidential election, with actually voting just 15 days away, both nomination contests experienced meaningful movement this week. CONT. David Rothschild, PredictWise Read more »
Who’s Winning Iowa And New Hampshire?
We launched our forecasts for the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries today. For much more detail about how this all works, you can read here. But our premise is that, given the challenges inherent in predicting the primaries, we’ll be publishing two models instead of pretending we’ve found a […] Read more »