In just a few more weeks, after just 200+ days of serious campaigning, the first votes of the 2016 election will be cast in Iowa for both the Republican and Democratic Caucus. The Republican Iowa favorite, Ted Cruz, is jockeying with his good friend Donald Trump for the non-establishment votes. […] Read more »
First Look at FiveThirtyEight’s Primary Forecast
ABC’s Jonathan Karl reports on FiveThirtyEight’s predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire on “This Week.” ABC News ABC Breaking News | Latest News Videos Read more »
The predictive value of GOP presidential polls
… Two Nates (Silver and Cohn) have come out with essays arguing that we still can’t extract much predictive value from opinion polls. For the detailed kind of analysis they like, this may be true. However, a slightly different approach has suggestive implications about who is likely to be the […] Read more »
A Psephologist’s Lament (And, You Can Look It Up)
Poll Watcher Season is upon us big time. And, with it comes both the good and the bad. Each election cycle resurrects some oldies about the failings of public polls and typically ushers in a few new critiques. Expect 2016 to follow the same pattern. In an attempt to shed […] Read more »
To Win In Iowa Or New Hampshire, It May Be Better To Poll Worse Nationally
… Just as during the 2012 general election, state polls and national polls disagree. And our advice this year is the same as it was then: Trust the state polls. In fact, there’s evidence the national polls may be a negative indicator once you control for the state-level survey results. […] Read more »
The More We Poll, the Less We Know
Polling of Republicans in the early-voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by the number of candidates in the hunt and an obsession with the horse race rather than a meaningful debate over policy, a new Boston Globe study says. … So what […] Read more »