This is a difficult time in the business of political predictions. …
It’s not simply the unexpected strength of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, both of whom, it was assumed, would run aground before they could even reach this week’s Republican caucus in Nevada or the Democratic primary in South Carolina. The earliest moments of the 2016 campaign were marked by a conspicuous pageant of wrongness. …
So are the predictors getting worse? Or is the political world getting more unpredictable? CONT.
Evan Osnos, The New Yorker